The ultimate Hollywood disaster movie would portray the catastrophic consequences of a nearby supernova eruption. If one were to occur within 1,000 light-years of Earth, it would be the end of civilization as we presently enjoy. A supernova eruption closer than 100 light-years from Earth would bring devastating health consequences for human beings.

Supernovae are the final titanic explosions of stars with initial masses that exceed 9 times the Sun’s mass. At peak brightness, a single supernova can outshine 100 billion ordinary stars. Figure 1 below shows a supernova outshining its host galaxy, NGC 4526.

blog__inline--we-are-living-in-the-ultimate-supernova-moment-1

Figure 1: Supernova 1994D in the NGC 4526 Galaxy. The supernova is to the lower left of the galaxy’s spiral arm structure. Image credit: NASA/ESA/Hubble Space Telescope

 

Supernovae are especially common in spiral galaxies. While our Milky Way Galaxy’s supernova eruption rate has been slowly declining over the past three billion years, it still averages about three supernova eruptions per century.

Not all spiral galaxies have supernova eruption rates as low as the Milky Way Galaxy (MWG). NGC 1559 is a barred spiral galaxy just like the MWG (see figure 2). Though it is a hundred times smaller than the MWG, NGC 1559 has had four supernova eruptions within the past 35 years. Taking into account NGC 1559’s much smaller size, its supernova eruption rate works out to 400 times greater than the average rate for the MWG!

blog__inline--we-are-living-in-the-ultimate-supernova-moment-2

Figure 2: The Barred Spiral Galaxy NGC 1559. Image credit: NASA/ESA/Hubble/Mathias Jage

Even with a rate as low as three supernova eruptions per century for the MWG, one would wonder how humanity has escaped devastation. Part of the answer is that the MWG is large—about 100,000 light-years in diameter. The major part of the answer, however, is that humans are living on Earth at a time when very few nearby supernovae have erupted and those that have were not near enough to wipe us out.

Ice Age Supernovae
Astronomer Richard Firestone’s analysis of the radiocarbon and beryllium isotope ratio records established that within the last 300,000 years, 23 supernovae have erupted within 1,000 light-years of Earth.1 This rate is more than four times below the normative rate.

Carbon-14 dating leaves little doubt that humans have been on Earth for at least the past 45,000 years. Firestone showed that the same “radiocarbon record for the past 50 kyr [50,000 years] is completely explained by the occurrence of four, powerful, near-Earth (<300 pc) [less than 980 light-years] cosmic ray events.”2 Table 1 shows the dates and distances from Earth of these four past supernova eruptions.

Table 1: Recent Nearby Supernova Eruptions

date (years ago) distance (light-years)
44,000 360
37,000 590
32,000 520
22,000 810

For the supernova event that occurred 44,000 years ago, during the several months following the eruption, Earth’s surface life was exposed to about 40 times the current cosmic radiation dose. Over the next 1,500 to 3,500 years, the cosmic radiation exposure was 4 times the current dose level. In the months following the 37,000 and 32,000 years ago events, Earth’s surface life was exposed to about 15 and 19 times the present cosmic radiation dose.

The consequences for human exposure to cosmic radiation 40, 19, and 15 times more intense than the current level was enhanced mutation rates and incidences of cancer. The production of much greater amounts of NOx compounds in the atmosphere caused respiratory health issues.

Beyond human health consequences, the much more intense cosmic radiation devastated the stratospheric ozone shield. This devastation dramatically increased the amount of ultraviolet radiation reaching Earth’s surface.

This increased ultraviolet radiation brought three major consequences. First, it dramatically lowered the food productivity of plants. Second, it brought global mean temperature increases of 3–4° Celsius, increases that are observed in the Antarctic and Greenland ice core records. Third, it devastated phytoplankton, thereby contributing to global warming and depleting fish stocks.

While not severe enough to bring about the extinction of the human species, each of the events listed in Table 1 would have made the maintenance of the current human population level and human civilization level impossible, not just for several months but for at least several centuries, if not for several millennia. For all four of the events listed in Table 1, it would not be possible to grow sufficient food to feed in excess of a billion human beings.

Interglacial Supernovae
For the past 10,000 years humans have been enjoying a warm interglacial period. It is an interglacial like no other. It is the only one where the global mean temperature has not changed by more than 2° Celsius. Because of this unprecedented period of extreme global stability, Earth is able to sustain more than 7 billion humans, where most of these humans have access to high-technology civilization.

This same time period is unprecedented in another way. During this period there has not been a single supernova eruption closer to Earth than 5.080 light-years. Table 2 lists all the detected supernovae during the last 10,000 years. Since a supernova as close to Earth as 5,000 light years would be as bright to human observers as the full Moon, we can be confident that no such event would have escaped human attention. Thus, the past 10,000 years must have been free of any supernova events closer to Earth than 5,000 light-years.

Table 2: Known Supernova Eruptions in the Past 10,000 Years

date distance (light-years)
185 AD 8,200
386 AD 14,700
393 AD 34,000
1006 AD 5,080
1054 AD 6,520
1181 AD 10,430
1572 AD 7,490
1604 AD 9,450
1671 AD 11,080
1868 AD 25,000

Supernova eruptions as distant as the ones listed in Table 2 pose no health threat to humanity. Neither do they pose any limitations on food productivity and, thus, on human population levels. Some of the more nearby supernova events in Table 2 could damage satellite electronics.

As my sons remind me, any damage to the GPS system of satellites would be the end of civilization as we know it. Fortunately for my sons and other members of their generation, there has not been a single supernova eruption closer than 10,000 light-years during the past 400 years. At that distance, supernova eruptions pose no threat to electronics and technology we currently possess or conceivably could develop within the next several decades.

It seems evident that God has had his supernatural hand on the MWG’s supernova events. At the same time that he has blessed us with an unprecedented period of extreme climate stability, he also has blessed us with an unprecedented period of no supernova eruptions that could possibly limit our population, technology, or capability to take the good news of salvation through Jesus Christ to all the people groups of the world.

Endnotes
  1. R. B. Firestone, “Observation of 23 Supernovae that Exploded <300 pc from Earth During the Past 300 kyr,” Astrophysical Journal 789 (July 1, 2014): id. 29, doi:10.1088/0004-637X/789/1/29.
  2. Firestone, “Observation of 23 Supernovae,” 10.

 

Check out more from Dr. Hugh Ross @Reasons.org

 

About The Author

Dr. Hugh Ross

Reasons to Believe emerged from my passion to research, develop, and proclaim the most powerful new reasons to believe in Christ as Creator, Lord, and Savior and to use those new reasons to reach people for Christ. I also am eager to equip Christians to engage, rather than withdraw from or attack, educated non-Christians. One of the approaches I’ve developed, with the help of my RTB colleagues, is a biblical creation model that is testable, falsifiable, and predictive. I enjoy constructively integrating all 66 books of the Bible with all the science disciplines as a way to discover and apply deeper truths. 1 Peter 3:15–16 sets my ministry goal, "Always be prepared to give an answer to everyone who asks you to give the reason for the hope that you have. But do this with gentleness and respect, keeping a clear conscience." Hugh Ross launched his career at age seven when he went to the library to find out why stars are hot. Physics and astronomy captured his curiosity and never let go. At age seventeen he became the youngest person ever to serve as director of observations for Vancouver's Royal Astronomical Society. With the help of a provincial scholarship and a National Research Council (NRC) of Canada fellowship, he completed his undergraduate degree in physics (University of British Columbia) and graduate degrees in astronomy (University of Toronto). The NRC also sent him to the United States for postdoctoral studies. At Caltech he researched quasi-stellar objects, or "quasars," some of the most distant and ancient objects in the universe. Not all of Hugh's discoveries involved astrophysics. Prompted by curiosity, he studied the world’s religions and "holy books" and found only one book that proved scientifically and historically accurate: the Bible. Hugh started at religious "ground zero" and through scientific and historical reality-testing became convinced that the Bible is truly the Word of God! When he went on to describe for others his journey to faith in Jesus Christ, he was surprised to discover how many people believed or disbelieved without checking the evidence. Hugh's unshakable confidence that God's revelations in Scripture and nature do not, will not, and cannot contradict became his unique message. Wholeheartedly encouraged by family and friends, communicating that message as broadly and clearly as possible became his mission. Thus, in 1986, he founded science-faith think tank Reasons to Believe (RTB). He and his colleagues at RTB keep tabs on the frontiers of research to share with scientists and nonscientists alike the thrilling news of what's being discovered and how it connects with biblical theology. In this realm, he has written many books, including: The Fingerprint of God, The Creator and the Cosmos, Beyond the Cosmos, A Matter of Days, Creation as Science, Why the Universe Is the Way It Is, and More Than a Theory. Between writing books and articles, recording podcasts, and taking interviews, Hugh travels the world challenging students and faculty, churches and professional groups, to consider what they believe and why. He presents a persuasive case for Christianity without applying pressure. Because he treats people's questions and comments with respect, he is in great demand as a speaker and as a talk-radio and television guest. Having grown up amid the splendor of Canada's mountains, wildlife, and waterways, Hugh loves the outdoors. Hiking, trail running, and photography are among his favorite recreational pursuits - in addition to stargazing. Hugh lives in Southern California with his wife, Kathy, and two sons.



Email Sign-up

Sign up for the TWR360 Newsletter

Access updates, news, Biblical teaching and inspirational messages from powerful Christian voices.

Thank you for signing up to receive updates from TWR360.

Required information missing

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA, and the Google Privacy Policy & Terms of Use apply.